The Oscars Have Returned

Awards Season marches towards its inevitable terminus with all of us in its undertow, and it’s all culminating with the Oscars on March 10th – the nominations are in! Moreso than in the last few years, I think that there’s a decently wide knowledge of at least a few of the films nominated for Best Picture, but maybe I’m not talking to enough normal people. Either way, the movies are even more “back” with each passing year, and the box office is proving that if nothing else; according to BoxOfficeMojo, the 2023 domestic box office was $8.9 billion. While that’s still quite shy of 2019’s $11 billion, it’s 4x the total of 2020 and 2x the total of 2021, which is good news. A couple of the highest grossers got recognized by the Academy this year, and have a serious chance to win. Of course, the Oscars are not the be-all, end-all acknowledgment of what movies truly matter or will live on or serve as future inspiration, but I continue to view them as a meaningful historical barometer - the movies that win, the ones that don't, the outrageous snubs and incredible upsets all become a part of the legacy of each film as well as the year in film in total.

So that’s what I’m bringing to the Oscars this year. What are they bringing us?

Best Picture:

• The Nominees: American Fiction; Anatomy of a Fall; Barbie; The Holdovers; Killers of the Flower Moon; Maestro; Oppenheimer; Past Lives; Poor Things; The Zone of Interest

• Least Favorite: Maestro

• Most Favorite: Killers of the Flower Moon

• Reflections / Big Misses: This is a pretty chalky lineup if you've been paying attention to the awards race thus far, and while there's always movies I'd rather have in that either received a few nominations or missed entirely, this is a pretty decent lineup. My least favorite, Maestro, is still far better than a few films recently nominated for this award, so I really can't complain. If you're really pressing me, I'd have liked to see May December and Asteroid City in here, but that was probably never gonna happen.

Best Director:

• The Nominees: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

• Least Favorite: Justine Triet, but only because I have to pick one. Anatomy of a Fall is awesome.

• Most Favorite: Scorsese, but when Nolan wins I'll be really, really pumped.

• Reflections / Big Misses: Though I haven't as of yet seen The Zone of Interest or Poor Things, this is a pretty awesome lineup based on what I've seen and what critical consensus seems to say. I'm not personally torn up about Gerwig missing, but I am pretty bummed that Celine Song missed for directing Past Lives.

Best Actor:

• The Nominees: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction.

• Least Favorite: Colman Domingo, Rustin - he's really great, but the movie's not.

• Most Favorite: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer - he's astounding, and so is the movie he's in.

• Reflections / Big Misses: The biggest and most obvious miss is Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon, and I can only point to the Academy taking him for granted and being too repulsed by his evil-yet-conflicted simpleton to reward him here, even though he's as, if not more, deserving than all these nominees. Yet again, I can't really argue with the 5 they landed on.

Best Actress:

• The Nominees: Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Emma Stone, Poor Things.

• Least Favorite: Carey Mulligan, Maestro; this character didn't really make a whole lot of sense to me in a movie that made even less.

• Most Favorite: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; like Murphy in Oppenheimer, she is astounding in an astounding movie.

• Reflections / Big Misses: I would have loved for Greta Lee from Past Lives or Cailee Spaeny from Priscilla to get in here, since Nyad appears to be just...fine and so Bening's nomination might be a result of her status as much as her performance, but for all I know she's great so maybe I ought not cast aspersions. Either way, this is gonna be a showdown between Gladstone and Stone.

Best Supporting Actor:

• The Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things.

• Least Favorite: Ryan Gosling, Barbie - you'd think the memes and the record-breaking box office would be Kenough, but you'd be wrong.

• Most Favorite: Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon - I'm really glad he got recognized here even though he missed for The Irishman.

• Reflections / Big Misses: This is a really strong category, and I really love what the likely "first few out" gave us: Charles Melton in May December, and Dominic Sessa in The Holdovers. Those two would have been excellent additions/replacements here, and I personally think that John Magaro in Past Lives or Ben Whishaw in Passages would fit in just as well despite sadly never having had a chance.

Best Supporting Actress:

• The Nominees: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; America Ferrera, Barbie; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

• Least Favorite: America Ferrera, Barbie; as time keeps passing, this character works less and less.

• Most Favorite: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers; she's the runaway favorite to win at the moment, and it's entirely deserved.

• Reflections / Big Misses: This category seemed to be heading this way for awhile now since four of these nominees were also nominated for the Globes, but Ferrera essentially taking Julianne Moore's spot from that other ceremony is a real downgrade. My ideal nominee who never had a chance is Rachel McAdams from Are You There, God? It's Me Margeret and seeing that film recognized would have been nice. Oh well.

Best Original Screenplay:

• The Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall; The Holdovers; Maestro; May December; Past Lives

• Least Favorite: Maestro, which is based on a real person and real things but I guess qualifies for Original Screenplay.

• Most Favorite: Past Lives, which is full stop a great movie.

• Reflections / Big Misses: There is one move that the Academy could have made to turn this really strong category into an absolutely awesome one, and that's swapping Maestro out for Asteroid City. Not only is Wes' more technically original in subject, theme, tone, structure, and premise than Cooper's, it's also...better.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• The Nominees: American Fiction; Barbie; Oppenheimer; Poor Things; The Zone of Interest

• Least Favorite: Barbie, though I do like it! There's just better stuff out there!

• Most Favorite: Oppenheimer, and if it's gonna win Best Picture, it'll start by winning this category - the last few Best Picture winners have also won their screenplay category, but the Academy might take this chance to award something else if Oppy is feeling as inevitable as nuclear annihilation.

• Reflections / Big Misses: The clearest big miss is Martin Scorsese and Eric Roth for their extraordinary work on Killers of the Flower Moon, which is also a bold act of adaptation by completely reframing its source material and reaching something profound with it.

Other Stray Thoughts:

• Oppenheimer missed for Visual Effects, but honestly should just outright win there. When people line up around the block to see the explosion you make on an IMAX screen, you've done something special. The Academy might have forgotten that this award existed before CGI, or even computers as we know them, but I haven't.

• Napoleon had a good day; the same could not be said for him at Waterloo.

• John Williams getting Oscar nominations, even for bad movies, is as inevitable as it gets.

• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is among Wes Anderson's best work, so I'm glad he got nominated in Live Action Short even if it's not that short or the Academy just snubbed the heck out of Asteroid City.

• Past Lives, May December, and Killers of the Flower Moon deserved more.

• Maestro deserved less, but every year's gotta have one.

• I don't see Saltburn anywhere. Good.

• I don't see Asteroid City, The Killer, or Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret anywhere. Bummer.

• In another year, we would have seen more of The Iron Claw and Priscilla, and that would have been just fine.

• Better find a way to see Poor Things and The Zone of Interest.

• France really should have chosen Anatomy of a Fall as its submission, since they missed for The Taste of Things.